What Is a Tariff Exposure Score? (And How to Lower Yours Fast)
Last updated . We revise figures when USDA, BLS or tariff notices change.
- The Tariff Exposure Score is a 0-60 rating of how much of your grocery cart sits in categories hit by 2026 tariffs.
- 12 categories, 0/3/5 points each depending on whether you buy them rarely, sometimes or weekly.
- Most US families of four score 25-40. Under 16 is low, over 45 is very high.
- Every 10 points cut is worth $15-30 a month at an $800 grocery budget, mostly from three or four swaps.
Key facts
- The Tariff Exposure Score is a 0-60 rating of how much of a household grocery cart falls in categories exposed to 2026 tariff-driven price increases, developed by The Tariff-Proof Kitchen in 2026.
- The score is built from 12 shopping-habit questions, each scored 0 (rarely), 3 (sometimes) or 5 (weekly); bands are 0-15 low, 16-30 moderate, 31-45 high, 46-60 very high.
- Median score among readers reporting results is in the low 30s; each 10-point reduction is worth roughly $15-30 a month at an $800 monthly grocery budget.
We built the Tariff Exposure Score in the spring of 2026 after pricing the same basket at three stores for two months and noticing that the families paying the most for tariffs were not the ones spending the most. They were the ones buying the same twelve things every week. The score is our way of putting a number on that.
What the score measures
Tariffs do not raise every grocery price equally. Chicken, eggs, milk, bread and most US-grown produce barely move. Coffee, olive oil, avocados, imported cheese, beef and shrimp move a lot. The Tariff Exposure Score answers one question: how much of what you buy every week sits in the second group?
We score habits rather than receipts on purpose. Two families on $800 a month can sit forty points apart because one eats coffee and berries for breakfast and the other eats oatmeal and bananas.
How it is calculated
The score covers 12 grocery categories. Each one is either directly tariff-exposed because it is mostly imported, or already rising fast for closely related supply reasons. For each category you answer how often it goes in your cart:
| Answer | Points |
|---|---|
| Never or rarely | 0 |
| Sometimes (a few times a month) | 3 |
| Every week | 5 |
Twelve categories times a maximum of five points gives a top score of 60. The categories are: fresh Mexican produce in winter (tomatoes, avocados, berries), coffee, beef, olive oil, imported pasta, imported cheese, imported seafood, sugar and sweets, tropical fruit, wine and imported beer, name-brand packaged goods, and shopping at a single store without comparing prices. The last two are not tariff items in themselves, but they are the two habits that most reliably amplify every other increase.
What a good score looks like
| Score | Band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | Low | Mostly domestic staples. Tariffs add a few dollars a month at most. |
| 16-30 | Moderate | Typical US family. Three swaps recover most of the extra cost. |
| 31-45 | High | Tariffs are adding $25-60 a month. Worth a focused week of changes. |
| 46-60 | Very high | Most of the bill sits in the fastest-rising categories. Big, quick savings available. |
Among readers who have sent us their results, the median is in the low 30s, which is roughly what a normal American cart looks like when coffee, beef and imported produce are weekly habits.
How to lower it in one week
- Take the two 5-point items you care least about and make them 0. For most people that is imported pasta and name-brand packaged goods. Store brands are the same product from the same factory at 5-72% less. That alone is 10 points.
- Turn coffee, beef or berries from 5 to 3. Not gone, just less often or in a cheaper form: store-brand coffee, beef only on sale and frozen, frozen berries instead of fresh in winter. Each step is 2 points and $5-15 a month.
- Split your shop across two stores. Aldi or Lidl for staples and a warehouse club or ethnic market for rice, beans and oil. That closes the last 5-point habit and, in our store comparison, saves $60-90 a month on its own.
Together that is 15 to 20 points in a week, about $40 to $70 a month at an $800 budget. The $200-a-month guide takes the same logic further.
What the score does not tell you
It does not know your prices, your store or your brands, so the dollar estimate in the calculator is a planning number, not an invoice. It also does not rate nutrition: a low-exposure cart can still be a bad diet. What it does well is rank where the exposure is, and that ranking is all you need to decide what to change first.
Scores move with tariff schedules. When the exposed categories change, we update the calculator and the tariff impact by food index together, so a score from last quarter may not match one from today.
Frequently Asked Questions
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