Food prices 2026: the monthly tracker. USDA forecast, BLS shelf prices, diesel and the tariff calendar, in one place
Last updated . Refreshed after each USDA Food Price Outlook (monthly, around the 25th), BLS CPI (mid-month) and EIA diesel survey (Mondays).
- USDA's forecast for 2026 grocery prices is +2.4 percent (range 1.8 to 3.0), under the 20-year average of 2.6 percent (USDA ERS, September 25, 2026).
- The latest actual reading is August 2026: food at home +2.2 percent on the year and flat on the month; all items CPI +3.4 percent (BLS, September 11, 2026).
- The big movers: beef forecast +9.4 percent and $6.92 a pound for ground beef in August; eggs forecast -29.4 percent and $2.27 a dozen; coffee $9.30 a pound, up 4.8 percent in a year.
- Fuel: diesel $6.32 a gallon on October 5, 2026, 21 cents under the September 22 record and $2.63 above a year ago (AAA). Freight, not tariffs, is the live pressure on fresh produce this month.
Key facts
- USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts food-at-home prices up 2.4 percent in 2026 (interval 1.8 to 3.0 percent), all food up 2.9 percent and food away from home up 3.5 percent (Food Price Outlook, September 25, 2026).
- The food-at-home Consumer Price Index was unchanged from July to August 2026 and 2.2 percent above August 2025; the all-items CPI rose 3.4 percent over the year (Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI news release for August 2026, September 11, 2026).
- USDA forecasts beef and veal up 9.4 percent in 2026 (7.4 to 11.6), fresh vegetables up 5.7 percent, sugar and sweets up 6.6 percent, eggs down 29.4 percent (-32.9 to -25.2), dairy up 0.1 percent, pork up 1.2 percent and poultry up 1.0 percent (USDA ERS, September 25, 2026).
- The U.S. city average price was $6.923 per pound for 100% ground beef, $2.272 per dozen for grade A large eggs, $9.299 per pound for ground coffee and $1.823 per pound for white bread in August 2026 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, average price data).
- AAA's national average for diesel was $6.321 per gallon on October 5, 2026, against a record $6.528 on September 22, 2026 and $3.690 a year earlier (AAA Gas Prices, October 5, 2026).
This page is the one we keep open. Every number on it comes from a government series or an AAA average we read ourselves, with the date, and we replace them as the agencies publish: USDA's Food Price Outlook around the 25th of each month, the BLS Consumer Price Index around the 11th, BLS average prices with it, and the EIA diesel survey every Monday. Our daily Tariff & Price Watch covers the news between updates; this page is the scoreboard.
1. The forecast: USDA Food Price Outlook, September 2026
| Category | Aug 2026 vs Aug 2025 | 2026 forecast | Forecast range |
|---|---|---|---|
| All food | +2.7% | +2.9% | 2.5 to 3.2 |
| Food at home (groceries) | +2.2% | +2.4% | 1.8 to 3.0 |
| Food away from home | +3.4% | +3.5% | 3.3 to 3.8 |
| Beef and veal | +5.9% | +9.4% | 7.4 to 11.6 |
| Pork | +0.6% | +1.2% | -0.1 to 2.6 |
| Poultry | +0.5% | +1.0% | 0.0 to 2.1 |
| Eggs | -23.0% | -29.4% | -32.9 to -25.2 |
| Dairy | -0.3% | +0.1% | -0.6 to 0.8 |
| Fresh fruits | +3.8% | +2.5% | 1.5 to 3.7 |
| Fresh vegetables | +2.6% | +5.7% | 4.3 to 7.2 |
| Sugar and sweets | +6.1% | +6.6% | 5.8 to 7.4 |
| Nonalcoholic beverages (coffee +6.1%) | +3.7% | +4.2% | 3.5 to 5.0 |
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook, Summary Findings, updated September 25, 2026. The first column is the year-over-year change in the August 2026 CPI as reported in the same release. For context, USDA notes food-at-home prices rose 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025 against a historical average of 2.6 percent a year. The next update is due around October 24, 2026. USDA's model does not take tariffs or fuel as inputs; they enter only when they show up in the monthly price data.
2. The actuals: CPI for August 2026
Groceries were flat from July to August and 2.2 percent above a year earlier. Seven of the 15 grocery categories USDA tracks fell in August, one was unchanged, seven rose. The month's two movers were eggs (+3.5 percent in the month, still 23.0 percent below August 2025) and fats and oils (+1.4 percent). Beef slipped 0.6 percent on the month but stayed 5.9 percent above a year ago. Coffee was 6.1 percent higher than a year ago. Energy was up 16.3 percent on the year and gasoline 27.4 percent, which is the September diesel spike's shadow before it reached the food index (BLS CPI, September 11, 2026; USDA ERS, September 25, 2026). The September CPI is due in mid-October and will be the first reading that carries record diesel.
3. Shelf prices: 14 staples, August 2026 vs August 2025 (BLS)
| Item (BLS U.S. city average) | Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground beef, 100% beef, per lb | $6.92 | $6.32 | +9.6% |
| Chicken breast, boneless, per lb | $4.17 | $4.21 | -0.9% |
| Chicken, whole, per lb | $2.01 | $2.08 | -3.1% |
| Bacon, sliced, per lb | $6.61 | $7.21 | -8.4% |
| Eggs, grade A large, per dozen | $2.27 | $3.59 | -36.7% |
| Milk, whole, per gallon | $4.23 | $4.17 | +1.4% |
| Cheddar cheese, per lb | $5.98 | $6.12 | -2.3% |
| Bread, white, per lb | $1.82 | $1.84 | -1.0% |
| Rice, white long grain, per lb | $1.11 | $1.06 | +4.9% |
| Coffee, ground roast, per lb | $9.30 | $8.87 | +4.8% |
| Sugar, white, per lb | $1.02 | $1.04 | -1.5% |
| Bananas, per lb | $0.65 | $0.67 | -2.1% |
| Oranges, navel, per lb | $1.71 | $1.80 | -4.8% |
| Potatoes, white, per lb | $0.98 | $1.00 | -2.5% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, U.S. city average, August 2026 and August 2025; percentage changes are our arithmetic. These are what shoppers paid, not an index. The spread is the story of 2026: eggs down $1.32 a dozen, ground beef up 60 cents a pound, bacon down 60 cents, coffee up 43 cents. We keep the per-item outlook and the cheaper swap for each on the tariff impact by food pages.
4. Fuel and freight
Diesel sets the cost of moving food, and 2026 is the year it mattered. AAA's national average hit a record $6.528 a gallon on September 22, 2026 and read $6.321 on October 5, against $3.690 a year earlier (AAA). The EIA weekly survey had $6.382 for September 28, up $2.628 on the year (EIA, released September 29). On the freight side, USDA's truck rate report for September 29 priced a refrigerated load from Salinas, California to Chicago at $6,600 to $6,900, up 18 percent in a week, with trucks in "slight shortage" (USDA AMS, September 30). No federal order restricts diesel exports; an October 5 executive order defers the 24.4-cent federal tax on dyed diesel used on the highway through December 31, subject to a Treasury determination. The running coverage: the red-dye diesel order, diesel below its record, produce truck rates, the $6.45 record and farm costs.
5. The tariff calendar that touches food
| Date | Action | Foods affected | Our brief |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 1 to Nov 30, 2026 | 300,000 t of lean beef trimmings admitted at the in-quota duty in three tranches (Proclamation 11059) | Ground beef | Second tranche opened Oct 1 |
| Sept 15, 2026 | 23 cheese lines from Canada added to the 50% Section 338 tariff | Canadian cheddar, Gouda, Swiss, processed cheese | Canada ban and cheese tariff |
| Sept 18, 2026 | Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act signed: authority for tariffs up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil, no rate or country set | Shrimp, basmati, spices, tea if India or China are designated | What the law says |
| Sept 27, 2026 | US-China "30-for-30" lists published; no food on the US import list, no rate, no date | None at the register; US beef, pork, chicken exports to China on China's list | The lists, read line by line |
| Sept 29, 2026 | US import ban on listed Canadian products takes effect | Packaged Canadian beer, wine, spirits, whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer | What changes at the store |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Second 100,000 t beef tranche and fourth 20,000 t Argentina tranche open | Ground beef | Beef quota |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Executive order defers the federal tax on dyed diesel used on the highway through Dec 31, pending Treasury | Freight cost for everything trucked | Red-dye diesel order |
Every row rests on a whitehouse.gov, federalregister.gov, ustr.gov or canada.ca page we read. The standing tariffs on specific foods, with the expected price change and a domestic swap for each, are on the 20 pages of our tariff impact by food index.
6. What a household should budget
USDA's own food plans for August 2026 put a family of four at $236 to $387 a week depending on the plan, or $1,024 to $1,679 a month. The full tables by age, and the household-size adjustments, are in how much groceries should cost for a family of four. The calculator tells you how much of your basket sits in the lines that are rising.
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