Tariff Impact by Food: 20 Groceries Compared for 2026
Not every item in your cart is affected by tariffs, but the ones that are tend to be bought every week. This index covers 20 grocery categories: the 12 with the biggest expected 2026 increases plus 8 everyday staples so you can see which ones are safe to lean on. Each page shows the forecast, why the price is moving, how exposed a typical family is, and the swap that keeps the meal without the markup.
| Food | Expected 2026 change | Exposure | Best swap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomatoes | +8-15% | High | Canned and crushed tomatoes (mostly US-grown) |
| Coffee | +19-25% | Very high | Store-brand ground coffee |
| Beef | +10-15% | High | Chicken thighs |
| Olive Oil | +15-20% | Very high | Store-brand olive oil in bulk tins |
| Pasta | +10-15% | Moderate | US-made store-brand pasta |
| Imported Cheese | +12-20% | High | Domestic blocks: Wisconsin parmesan |
| Shrimp and Seafood | +10-18% | High | Canned tuna and salmon |
| Sugar and Sweets | +6.7% | Moderate | Store-brand sugar bought in bulk |
| Avocados | +10-20% | Very high | Buy only when on promotion |
| Berries | +8-15% | High | Frozen domestic berries (same nutrition |
| Bananas | +5-10% | Moderate | Apples |
| Rice | +8-12% | Moderate | US-grown long-grain rice in 20 lb bags |
| Chicken | +2-4% | Low | Thighs and drumsticks instead of breasts |
| Eggs | +3-6% | Low | Buy store-brand large eggs |
| Milk and Dairy | +2-5% | Low | Store-brand milk and yogurt |
| Bread and Flour | +3-5% | Low | Store-brand loaves |
| Chocolate | +8-12% | High | Store-brand chocolate chips in bulk |
| Wine and Imported Beer | +10-15% | High | Domestic labels from California |
| Nuts and Dried Fruit | +8-12% | Moderate | US almonds |
| Canned Tomatoes | +4-8% | Low | Store-brand California crushed and diced tomatoes by the case |
Want your personal number? The Tariff Grocery Calculator turns these 12 categories into a 0-60 Tariff Exposure Score and a dollar estimate for your household in about two minutes.
How to use this list
- Find the three foods you buy most often on the table above.
- Open each page and apply the swap for your everyday purchase; keep the original for promotions.
- For anything shelf-stable with a large increase ahead (coffee, olive oil, rice, pasta, canned tomatoes), consider a 60-90 day stockpile bought at sale price. Our stockpiling guide explains how much is enough.
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