USDA counted 3,897 tons of Brazilian beef trimmings in a week. The low-duty quota has room for 100,000 a month.
- USDA's weekly import count, dated October 9, 2026, shows 3,897 metric tons of boneless beef trimmings from Brazil passed for US entry in the week of September 27 to October 3.
- The extra quota for lean trimmings allows 100,000 metric tons in each 30-day tranche, which works out to about 23,300 tons a week (Proclamation 11059; the weekly figure is our arithmetic).
- Brazil's fresh beef shipments for the year stood at 264,861 metric tons on October 3, up 32 percent from 201,125 a year earlier (USDA AMS, October 9, 2026).
- Ground beef averaged $6.923 a pound in August 2026, the latest BLS figure, up 9.6 percent from $6.318 in August 2025.
Key facts
- USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service reported on October 9, 2026 that 3,897 metric tons of boneless beef trimmings from Brazil were passed for entry into the United States in the week of September 27 to October 3, 2026, out of 6,381 tons of Brazilian fresh beef.
- Proclamation 11059 of August 26, 2026 lets 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings from "other countries or areas" enter at the in-quota duty in three tranches of 100,000 tons; the second runs from October 1 to October 30, 2026 (Federal Register, 91 FR 55989).
- Boneless beef inside the US tariff-rate quota pays 4.4 cents per kilogram and beef above it pays 26.4 percent, as of October 13, 2026 (US Harmonized Tariff Schedule, Revision 21, heading 0202.30).
- USDA raised its 2026 beef import forecast to 6,347 million pounds on October 9, 2026, from 6,262 million a month earlier and 5,388 million in 2025, "primarily on recent strength from Australia" (WASDE-676).
- The US city average price of 100% ground beef was $6.923 per pound in August 2026, compared with $6.318 in August 2025 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, series APU0000703112).
This is a fast-moving story. Prices, tariffs and policy in this brief were correct as of October 13, 2026 and can change from one day to the next; we update when the primary sources do.
What happened
The first hard number on the beef quota's second month arrived Friday. USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service publishes a weekly table of imported meat passed for entry, by country and by product. The October 9 edition covers September 27 to October 3, the week in which the first 100,000-ton tranche closed and the second opened.
Brazil is the country to watch in that table. The extra 300,000 tons are reserved for "other countries or areas", the group of suppliers with no allocation of their own in the tariff schedule, and Brazil is by far the largest shipper in USDA's report that falls in that group. Paraguay, the other name that comes up in trade coverage, does not appear in the report at all.
For the week, USDA counted 6,381 metric tons of Brazilian fresh beef, of which 3,897 tons were boneless trimmings. Our arithmetic: 100,000 tons over 30 days is about 23,300 tons a week, so Brazil's trimmings ran at roughly 17 percent of the pace that would fill a tranche. For scale, 3,897 metric tons is about 8.6 million pounds.
Imports as a whole are up. Fresh beef from all countries reached 1,487,272 metric tons for the year on October 3, 16 percent ahead of 2025, and USDA's October supply and demand report lifted its 2026 import forecast to 6,347 million pounds. It credited Australia, which ships under its own 378,214-ton allocation and sent 8,688 tons of trimmings in the same week, more than twice Brazil's volume.
Our October 2 brief on the second tranche opening has the terms of the quota.
What has not happened
The weekly table is a count of inspected product, and the quota is counted by Customs on four tariff lines. The two can differ. No source we could read publishes the official fill of either tranche, so we do not say how much of the first 100,000 tons went unused. What the table supports is narrower: in one week, 3,897 tons of Brazilian trimmings against a tranche pace of about 23,300.
Retail ground beef has not fallen in any published number. August is still the latest BLS average, at $6.923 a pound, and the September figure was not in the BLS file this morning.
The proclamation's price test has produced no public finding that we could find. Clause 6(b) asks USDA and the Trade Representative to watch whether the trimmings "are being sold at a price 25 percent below the market price for lean beef trimmings". The president "may end the action" if imported ground beef does not sell lower. Neither has happened on the record.
Supply at home is still shrinking. USDA cut its 2026 beef production forecast on October 9 to 24,870 million pounds, from 26,071 million in 2025.
Which foods are exposed
| Food | Why it is exposed | Domestic fallback |
|---|---|---|
| Ground beef, fresh | Blended from imported lean trimmings and domestic fat trim; $6.923/lb in August (BLS) | Ground turkey or pork for half the recipe |
| Frozen burger patties | Same blend; no source we found puts a number on how fast import costs reach the box | Store-brand patties bought on sale |
| Steaks and roasts | Outside the quota; ERS has beef and veal up 9.4% for 2026 | Pork loin, chicken thighs |
| Canned and processed beef | Brazil's processed beef is down 17% this year in the USDA count (30,974 t vs 37,198 t) | Canned chicken, dried beans |
What to do this month
Keep October's ground beef budget at about $7 a pound. Nothing in the import count argues for a lower number yet. Compare packs by the price per pound on the shelf tag, since a 3 lb family pack and a 1 lb tray of the same lean percentage rarely match.
Stretch it. A pound of ground beef cooked with a pound of lentils covers two taco nights for four.
Skip the stock-up. A quota that is filling slowly does not point to a price drop to wait for, and it does not point to a spike to buy ahead of.
The monthly numbers behind this brief, USDA forecast, BLS shelf prices and diesel, are on the food prices 2026 tracker.
Editorial note: this brief was drafted with AI assistance from the sources below and checked by our editor before publication. Read How we work.
Sources
- USDA AMS, Oct 9, 2026 — Imported Meat Passed for Entry In the U.S. by Country (week of September 27-October 3)
- Federal Register, Aug 31, 2026 — Proclamation 11059 of August 26, 2026, "Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer", 91 FR 55989
- USITC, Oct 13, 2026 — Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States, Revision 21 (2026), Chapter 2, Additional US Note 3 and heading 0202.30
- USDA, Oct 9, 2026 — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676
- BLS, Aug 2026 — Average Price Data, ground beef, 100% beef, per lb (APU0000703112)
- USDA ERS, Sep 25, 2026 — Food Price Outlook, Summary Findings
Frequently Asked Questions
USDA's weekly count for September 27 to October 3, 2026 shows 3,897 metric tons of boneless trimmings from Brazil, the main supplier in the eligible group. The quota has room for 100,000 tons in each 30-day tranche. The official Customs tally of the quota is a separate count that we could not read.
No published figure shows it. The latest BLS average is $6.923 a pound for August 2026, up 9.6 percent in a year, and the September price was not out on October 13.
The extra 300,000 tons are reserved for "other countries or areas", meaning suppliers without their own allocation in the US tariff schedule. Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Uruguay and the United Kingdom have their own lines, and Canada and Mexico have no limit. Brazil is the largest shipper in USDA's weekly report outside those.
Yes. Proclamation 11059 says the president may end the action if it does not lower the sale price of imported ground beef. The third tranche opens October 31 and closes when it fills or on November 30, 2026, whichever comes first.
See What This Does to Your Bill
Run the free Tariff Grocery Calculator: 12 questions, your Tariff Exposure Score and the swaps that cut it. Then the full 90-day system for $7.99.
Run the Calculator (free)