Beef imports up 26% and the "Affordable Beef" quota only 37% filled: ground beef still $6.79
- US beef imports were 520 million pounds in August 2026, 26% above a year earlier (USDA ERS, October 16).
- The September tranche of the extra 100,000-ton "Affordable Beef" quota was 37% filled when it closed on September 30, according to the CBP status report cited by ERS; the Argentina tranche filled completely.
- Wholesale prices for 90% lean trimmings, the raw material of ground beef, have fallen steeply, and ERS ties the drop to cheaper imported trimmings.
- Ground beef averaged $6.792 a pound in September (BLS), down 13 cents from August and still 47 cents above September 2025.
Key facts
- US beef imports in August 2026 were 520 million pounds, 26 percent above August 2025, with imports from Australia and Brazil each up 33 million pounds (USDA ERS, Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, October 16, 2026).
- The "Affordable Beef" tariff-rate quota tranche for September 2026 was 37 percent filled and the Argentina tranche was completely filled, per the September 28, 2026 CBP Commodity Status Report as reported by USDA ERS on October 16, 2026.
- USDA ERS forecast 2026 US beef imports at 6.347 billion pounds on October 16, 2026, a rise of nearly 18 percent from 2025.
- The BLS average price of 100% ground beef was $6.792 per pound in September 2026, against $6.923 in August 2026 and $6.323 in September 2025 (BLS Average Price Data, series APU0000703112).
- Proclamation 11059 of August 2026 added 300,000 metric tons to the beef import quota for lean trimmings in three tranches, the second of which runs October 1 to 30, 2026, and the third from October 31 until filled or November 30, 2026 (Federal Register, August 31, 2026).
This is a fast-moving story. Prices, tariffs and policy in this brief were correct as of October 20, 2026 and can change from one day to the next; we update when the primary sources do.
What happened
USDA's monthly livestock outlook, out Friday, is the first official read on how the August beef proclamation is working. The answer is mixed. Imports are up a lot: 520 million pounds in August, and 4.36 billion pounds for January through August against 3.81 billion in the same months of 2025. Mexico sent 26% more, the "rest of world" group 36% more. ERS now expects 6.347 billion pounds for the full year, nearly 18% more than last year, and raised 2027 to 6.175 billion.
The quota itself is a different story. The proclamation opened 100,000 metric tons a month at the in-quota rate of 4.4 cents a kilogram instead of the 26.4% over-quota duty. ERS, citing CBP's September 28 status report, says the September tranche closed 37% filled. The Argentina tranche, a separate quota, filled completely. ERS adds that the open tranche "is likely being filled mostly by Brazil" and that Brazil's shipments to the US "have risen substantially in August and September".
Where the extra beef shows up first is at the packing plant, not the meat case. ERS reports a "steep decline in prices for 90 percent lean trimmings" and says the drop "appears tied to increased availability of lower priced imported lean trimmings". Cull cow prices, which track trimmings, have fallen sharply from mid-year highs even though cow slaughter so far this year is the lowest since 1950, 2005 excepted. The boxed beef cutout, the wholesale measure for whole carcasses, averaged $375.87 per hundredweight from July through October 2, under last year's $385.03.
At retail, ground beef was $6.792 a pound in September on the BLS survey, down from $6.923 in August. That is a 1.9% monthly drop, the first since May, after three straight monthly rises from $6.745 in May to $6.923 in August. It is still 7.4% above September 2025. One month is not a trend, and the BLS figure is a national average of what shoppers paid, not a sale price.
What has not happened
No retailer has published a 25%-below-market price for quota beef, and no primary source we found puts a number on any discount. The proclamation asks USDA and USTR to monitor whether the imported trimmings "are being sold at a price 25 percent below the market price" and to tell the president if not, so he can "determine whether to eliminate what remains" of the quota. ERS's October outlook contains no such determination.
The quota has not been cut, extended or changed. The October tranche is open through October 30; the third opens October 31. We have no October fill figure: CBP's status reports are not readable from here, and ERS reports only September.
Beef has not become cheap. ERS's September Food Price Outlook still has beef and veal prices 5.9% above a year earlier in August, and the agency's own forecast for 2026 beef production keeps falling as slaughter stays slow.
Which foods are exposed
| Food | Why it is exposed | Domestic fallback |
|---|---|---|
| Ground beef (80/20, 73/27) | Made from lean trimmings; the quota and the import surge land here first; $6.79/lb in September | Buy the 3-5 lb pack, portion and freeze; stretch with lentils or oats |
| Steaks and roasts (ribeye, chuck, round) | Not in the quota; cutout supported by holiday demand for rib and loin | Chuck roast and bottom round on sale; pork shoulder at under half the price per pound |
| Eggs | Not beef, but the other protein in the same outlook: NY wholesale 82.6 cents a dozen in September, BLS retail $2.27 | Already the cheapest protein in the case; buy the 18- or 36-count |
| Imported Brazilian and Australian trimmings | Quota is "other countries"; Brazil likely the main user | None needed; this is the supply that is growing |
| Beef from Mexico and Canada | Up 26% and 2% January-August; USMCA goods outside the quota | Same product, same case; no action |
What to do this month
Watch the price per pound on the biggest ground beef pack your store sells, not the per-package price. At $6.79 a pound the BLS average is still high, but it has started to move, and the wholesale trimmings price is moving faster than retail. If your store's family pack drops under $5.50 a pound before Thanksgiving, buy two and freeze one in 1 lb portions. Keep eggs in the plan: at $2.27 a dozen they are 35% cheaper than a year ago, and ERS expects the fourth-quarter wholesale price around $1.20. For roasts, the holiday rib and loin demand ERS describes means chuck and round are where the sales will be.
The monthly numbers behind this brief, USDA forecast, BLS shelf prices and diesel, are on the food prices 2026 tracker.
Editorial note: this brief was drafted with AI assistance from the sources below and checked by our editor before publication. Read How we work.
Sources
- USDA ERS, Oct 16, 2026 — Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: October 2026 (LDP-M-388)
- Federal Register, Aug 31, 2026 — Proclamation 11059, "Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer"
- USITC — Harmonized Tariff Schedule, headings 0201.30.50 and 0201.30.80
- BLS, Sep 2026 — Average Price Data, 100% ground beef (APU0000703112) and eggs, grade A, large (APU0000708111)
- USDA ERS, Sep 25, 2026 — Food Price Outlook, Summary Findings
Frequently Asked Questions
Partly. Imports rose 26% in August and the wholesale price of lean trimmings fell, which ERS ties to cheaper imports. But the September tranche of the special quota was only 37% used, and ground beef at retail fell 13 cents in September, not the 25% the proclamation asks USDA to look for.
ERS does not say. It notes the quota is open to "other countries" without their own allocation and is likely being used mostly by Brazil, whose shipments rose in August and September. Argentina's separate tranche filled completely.
It moved down from $6.92 in August to $6.79 in September on the BLS survey, and the wholesale signal points the same way. No source puts a number on the next move. The third quota tranche opens October 31 and runs until filled or November 30.
Yes. BLS has large eggs at $2.27 a dozen in September, 35% under a year ago, and ERS projects a 2026 wholesale average 72% below 2025 as the laying flock grows 5%.
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