USDA's October outlook: eggs 72% under last year, the smallest wheat crop since 1970, and a Thanksgiving turkey priced close to 2025
- USDA's October 9 supply and demand report forecasts wholesale eggs at 103.5 cents a dozen for 2026, down from 373.7 cents in 2025 (72% lower by our arithmetic), and butter at $1.56 a pound, down from $2.22.
- Wholesale frozen hen turkeys are forecast at 175.0 cents a pound for October-December, against 172.2 cents in the same quarter of 2025. The full-year average is 175.5 cents against 135.8.
- The US wheat crop is estimated at 1,534 million bushels, which USDA calls "the smallest U.S. wheat production since 1970".
- Beef production for 2026 was cut to 24,870 million pounds and beef imports raised to 6,347 million pounds, up from 5,388 million in 2025.
Key facts
- USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report of October 9, 2026 forecasts the national wholesale price of 8-16 lb hen turkeys at 175.0 cents per pound for the fourth quarter of 2026, compared with 172.2 cents in the fourth quarter of 2025, and at 175.5 cents for all of 2026, compared with 135.8 cents in 2025.
- The same October 9, 2026 USDA report forecasts wholesale Grade A large eggs (New York, volume buyers) at 103.5 cents per dozen for 2026, down from 373.7 cents in 2025 and from 106.6 cents in the September forecast.
- USDA estimated 2026/27 US wheat production at 1,534 million bushels on October 9, 2026, down from 1,989 million bushels a year earlier and the smallest crop since 1970, with a season-average farm price of $6.30 per bushel.
- USDA raised its forecast of 2026 US beef imports to 6,347 million pounds on October 9, 2026, from 6,262 million in September and 5,388 million in 2025, "primarily on recent strength from Australia".
- USDA's October 9, 2026 forecast for the 2026 wholesale butter price is $1.560 per pound, down from $2.2202 in 2025; cheese is forecast at $1.525 per pound, down from $1.7878.
This is a fast-moving story. Prices, tariffs and policy in this brief were correct as of October 12, 2026 and can change from one day to the next; we update when the primary sources do.
What happened
USDA publishes this report once a month, and the October edition (WASDE-676) came out on Friday, October 9. It moves wholesale and farm prices, which reach the shelf weeks or months later, so we read it as a map of where grocery prices are being pushed.
Three things stand out for a family cart. Eggs and dairy fat are cheap and getting cheaper: USDA lowered egg prices for the rest of 2026 "on recent price weakness and increased production", and cut butter to $1.56 from $1.595 a month ago. Turkey needs a careful read. USDA raised its 2026 and 2027 forecasts "on current price strength and tight supplies of whole birds", and the full-year average is 29% above 2025 by our arithmetic. Most of that rise happened before last Thanksgiving, though, so the quarter that matters for the holiday, October to December, is forecast at 175.0 cents a pound against 172.2 cents a year earlier, a difference of 2.8 cents.
Beef supply is tighter than in September. Production for 2026 came down by 75 million pounds to 24,870 million, which is 4.6% under 2025 on our arithmetic, while imports went up by 85 million pounds. USDA left its cattle price forecast unchanged at $237.56 per hundredweight for 2026, against $224.37 in 2025.
Grains are split. Corn is plentiful, at 16.0 billion bushels with a farm price lowered ten cents to $4.70. Wheat is short: the crop is 23% below last year's and stocks are "still 20 percent below last year", although the farm price forecast slipped ten cents to $6.30. Rice production fell to 157.7 million hundredweight from 206.7 million, and the farm price forecast rose 30 cents to $15.20.
What has not happened
None of these are shelf prices. The turkey figure is a wholesale price for hens of 8 to 16 pounds, and no source we found puts a number on what a whole bird will cost at retail this November. Holiday promotions can also move the sticker more than the wholesale market does.
USDA's retail forecasts have not changed since September 25: its Economic Research Service still expects egg prices to fall 29.4% in 2026, beef and veal to rise 9.4% and food at home to rise 2.4%. The next update will show whether the October numbers move those.
Bread has not followed wheat. The same ERS release lists cereal and bakery products among the categories growing slower than their 20-year average. Diesel remains the larger cost in a loaf's journey: AAA's national average was $6.2771 on October 11, 25.1 cents under the record of $6.5276 set on September 22.
Which foods are exposed
| Food | Why it is exposed | Domestic fallback |
|---|---|---|
| Whole turkey | Wholesale hens forecast at 175.0 cents/lb for Oct-Dec vs 172.2 a year earlier; USDA cites tight supplies of whole birds | Whole chicken or bone-in breast; broilers are forecast at 118.9 cents/lb, below 2025's 124.8 |
| Ground beef | 2026 production cut to 24,870 million lb; imports now fill more of the gap | Pork: USDA lowered hog prices to $55.00/cwt for the fourth quarter |
| Rice | US crop down to 157.7 million cwt; ending stocks down 32% from last year | Corn-based staples (grits, masa, cornmeal); corn supply is rising |
| Cooking oil | Indonesia's palm oil output cut by 2.2 million tons; global stocks lowest since 2017/18; soybean oil at 70 cents/lb vs 64.08 | Butter for baking, now forecast 30% under 2025 at wholesale |
| Flour and bread | Smallest wheat crop since 1970 | No shortage signalled: farm price forecast was lowered to $6.30 |
What to do this month
Plan the Thanksgiving bird at about last year's price. With whole birds tight at wholesale, a per-pound promotion on frozen turkeys is worth taking when you see one, and a frozen bird bought in October keeps until the holiday.
Use eggs and butter while they are cheap. Butter freezes, so a few extra pounds bought now cover holiday baking. USDA's quarterly path has eggs at 120.0 cents a dozen in October-December, above the 101.9 cents of the third quarter, which suggests the low of the year has passed.
For weeknight meals, pork and chicken are the proteins USDA expects to get cheaper into the winter. Beef is the one it expects to stay tight into 2027.
The monthly numbers behind this brief, USDA forecast, BLS shelf prices and diesel, are on the food prices 2026 tracker.
Editorial note: this brief was drafted with AI assistance from the sources below and checked by our editor before publication. Read How we work.
Sources
- USDA, Oct 9, 2026 — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676
- USDA ERS, Sep 25, 2026 — Food Price Outlook, Summary Findings
- AAA, Oct 11, 2026 — AAA national average fuel prices
Frequently Asked Questions
Slightly, at wholesale: USDA's October 9, 2026 report forecasts hen turkeys at 175.0 cents a pound for the fourth quarter, against 172.2 cents a year earlier. The full-year average is 175.5 cents against 135.8 in 2025, because prices climbed during 2025. No source we found puts a number on retail turkey prices for November.
USDA lowered its 2026 wholesale egg forecast to 103.5 cents a dozen on October 9, 2026, from 106.6 cents in September, citing more production. It also expects 120.0 cents for the fourth quarter, which is above the third quarter's 101.9 cents, so the low point of the year may be behind us.
USDA has not said so. The farm price forecast for wheat was lowered to $6.30 a bushel on October 9, 2026, and the Economic Research Service lists cereal and bakery products among the categories rising slower than their 20-year average. Wheat is a small share of the cost of a loaf.
US beef production is forecast at 24,870 million pounds for 2026, down from 26,071 million in 2025, and imports are filling part of the gap. USDA raised the 2026 import forecast to 6,347 million pounds on October 9, 2026, "primarily on recent strength from Australia".
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