How Tariffs Affect Tomatoes Prices in 2026 (+8-15%)
Last updated . We revise figures when USDA, BLS or tariff notices change.
- Expected 2026 price change: +8-15%
- Tariff exposure: High, main origin: Mexico (winter), US (summer)
- Typical family-of-4 spend: about $22 per month
- Best swap: Canned and crushed tomatoes (mostly US-grown), cherry tomatoes only in US season, frozen tomato-based sauces
Key facts
- About half of fresh tomatoes eaten in the US between November and April are imported from Mexico (USDA ERS).
- Tomatoes is expected to change by +8-15% in 2026, according to our reading of USDA 2026 food price forecasts and published tariff schedules (updated September 19, 2026).
- Exposure level for tomatoes in the Tariff Exposure Score framework: High.
Roughly half of the fresh tomatoes eaten in the US in fall and winter come from Mexico, now subject to a 25% tariff surcharge at the border.
What it costs you
| Metric | Tomatoes |
|---|---|
| Expected 2026 increase | +8-15% |
| Tariff exposure level | High |
| Main origin | Mexico (winter), US (summer) |
| Typical monthly spend (family of 4) | $22 |
| Shelf life / stockpile window | Fresh: days. Canned: 2+ years |
Winter is when tomatoes bite. From November to April most of what sits on the shelf came through Nogales, and that is the box the tariff lands on. We price a 28 oz can of store-brand crushed tomatoes at $1.09 to $1.28 depending on the chain, which works out cheaper than fresh even in July once you count what goes soft in the drawer. Run the Tariff Grocery Calculator to see how much of your own basket sits in exposed categories.
The swap that works
Canned and crushed tomatoes (mostly US-grown), cherry tomatoes only in US season, frozen tomato-based sauces. For sauces, soups and chili, canned is the better ingredient anyway: packed at peak ripeness, more concentrated. Save fresh for the two things it is actually good at, salads and sandwiches, and buy those in August from a farm stand or the local aisle.
Other foods to check
Frequently Asked Questions
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